Substantial uncertainty surrounds climate science, yet in recent years there has been an unprecedented growth – and an accompanying emphasis – in the field of climate change adaptation (CCA). With such uncertainty, however, it is questionable whether we can weight such importance on strategies for CCA before understanding the relative importance of existing threats to humanity. In order to contextualise the true threat posed by climate change it is essential to first understand the relative and absolute threats posed by many different hazards; thereby taking an objective and unbiased approach to risk analysis. This research does not downplay the threat of climate change, it simply aims to integrate a more rigorous scientific approach into hazard assessments used by NGOs and to be utilised in multi-hazard environments.
Approach
Despite being intimately related, the two key themes for enhancing the effectiveness of building resilience in vulnerable communities (disaster risk reduction (DRR) - procedures for reducing the risk from natural hazards - and climate change adaptation) are being implemented fairly independent of one another. There is thus a need to establish an efficient and integrated approach to mitigating the consequences of natural hazards and climate change. This research thus aims to develop multi-hazard assessments that can be used by NGOs for building sustainable and resilient communities in the context of disaster risk reduction as well as of climate change adaptation; it aims to illustrate that climate change must be rigorously assessed relative to other hazards at appropriate scales of both space and time before being considered a priority by NGOs. Furthermore, multi-hazard assessments are more than simply a collective analysis of individual hazards; they necessitate understanding the feedback and interrelated nature of hazards. In summary, the methods of hazard assessment that this research team plan to develop aim to include:
- Constraining multiple hazards as well as the interactions between them.
- Assessing hazards within their broader environmental context.
- Objectively analysing the real threat of climate change within the broader hazard profile of an area.
- Integrating spatial and temporal scales into hazard assessments, particularly in relation to climate-related hazards.
- Fully integrating bottom-up and top-down approaches to hazard assessment, particularly in terms of effectively combining indigenous and scientific knowledge.
In order to incorporate all these elements, it is advocated that a systems approach to multi-hazard assessment is adopted: systems theory focuses on the interactions between system components and avoids the risk of idealising one part of the systems at the expense of other components (Gorman, 2005). To this end, this research will initially focus on an in-depth evaluation of current NGO methods for DRR and CCA assessment, which will consider (a) how NGOs assess risk, (b) how scientific multi-hazard assessments can be used to inform policy and decision-making, and (c) how these assessments can effectively incorporate local knowledge. The results will be used to inform strategies, so that NGOs, and the communities they work with, have the opportunity to holistically analyse threats to human security and, through informed decision-making, increase their resilience to such threats.
Case Study
The Philippines has been chosen as the site of study as it represents a truly multi-hazard (including climate change) environment, which is also suffering from intense environmental degradation. The outputs of the research, however, aim to have wider geographical applicability.
The stakeholder partner for this EngD is CAFOD (Catholic Agency for Overseas Development).
Reference
Gorman, M. E., 2005. Earth systems engineering management: Human behavior, technology and sustainability. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 44(3 SPEC. ISS.), p. 201-213.
